Just a few more days until Super Bowl Sunday. Eagles vs Chiefs. A chance for the City of Philadelphia to have its 2nd Super Bowl Parade. But before the city can party, the team itself has to take care of business. Will they do that? They have a very good shot, and here is why.
These 4 Numbers Show Why You Should Believe In The Eagles
5.5
A lot has been made about how good the Chiefs Run defense is. They haven’t allowed a RB to gain 100 yards all season. Spags’ defense has never allowed a 100-yard rusher in the post-season. They haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher period since Lamar Jackson got 122 in week 1.
All of that is true. But of late, they have actually not been as good. In their last 5 games, including the 2 playoff games but not including the Broncos game, where they rested their starters, they have allowed 721 yards on 130 carries. Up to 5.5 yards per carry. They allowed just 3.99 yards per carry before these last 5 games. Suddenly, they are very leaky on the ground. It’s not exactly ideal given who they have to play. Eagles currently average 6.6 yards per carry in the playoffs, and Saquon Barkley averages 6.7.
Maybe they can slow Saquon down for a bit. But can they prevent the big run? Saquon Barkley has more explosive TDs than anyone in the league, and that is as a RB. You can’t even stack the box on him because you are just asking him to break a long run with no one back there to stop him. Saquon will be able to run on the Chiefs just like he has on every other defense, and it is hard to beat the Eagles if he produces. Hence why they are 17-3
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10
Neither of these teams are turning the ball over. The Chiefs have just 1 turnover in 2 games, and the Eagles have 0 in 3 games. But where there is a massive gulf in this game is takeaways. The Eagles have 10 so far, and the Chiefs have none. So while both teams excel at protecting the ball, only 1 team excels at taking away.
So which will break, will the Eagles’ defense that has forced 19 turnovers in their last 5 games suddenly fail to take the ball away, or will the Chiefs’ offense that has turned it over once in the last 9 games cough it up? If the Eagles win that battle, it likely means they win the game. The team that wins the turnover battle is 7-1 in these playoffs and 23-2 in the last 25 games (leaving out games where the turnover battle was even). Eagles going into this game as not only the best team at protecting the ball but the best at taking it away is a massive deal.
This is not a small sample size, and it is no fluke. The Eagles have a knack for knocking the Football out. It is something they deliberately practice. They have now done it to multiple teams who had been protecting the ball well before they met the Eagles.
58.2
Finishing drives, both on offense and defense, is what really matters. Settling for FGs, or forcing a team to settle for FGs, can decide the game. And when it comes to red zone efficiency, the Eagles are the superior team on both sides of the field.
The Chiefs score on just 53.95 % of their red zone trips (22nd in the league) and give up scores on 53.33 % of trips. Meanwhile, the Eagles score on 58.02 % of Red Zone Appearances and allow scores on just 48.28%. A swing of 5% in each direction. We have seen sometimes, especially early in games, the Eagles defense can bend a little bit. But they almost always hold down the fort and keep the opponent out of the endzone. And with their run game, they can finish drives too. But the Chiefs overall have struggled to finish drives. That can be the difference. If the Eagles score 7, and the Chiefs respond with only 3, that is a win.
74.0
The Chiefs do not have much of a run game to speak of. Their pass game has actually not been too productive either, but with Mahomes you never count them out. But they are going to need to attack the Eagles secondary to have success through the air, and that has not gone well for almost any QB this season, with Matthew Stafford being the lone QB to put up over 300 yards on them. But even most of that came once the field was completely covered in snow and the defense was at a huge disadvantage.
The rookie Corners, plus Darius Slay, make up the best CB trio we have ever seen. CJ Gardener Johnson and Reed Blankenship at Safety have also played at a high level. 4 of those 5 have a Qb rating aginst under 80, and CJGJ is just over 80.
In the playoffs so far QBs have a rating of just 74 against the Eagles. The completion rate is just over 60%. They gave up the fewest passing yards per game during the season despite front running in most games thus forcing teams to throw more against them.
Granted the run defense is actually just as good, but it is the pass game the Chiefs will likely go at, and that has not been a winning gameplan for any team this season.